Wood Mackenzie: 20% of Global Refining Capacity at Risk of Closure as Oil Demand Peaks

Wood Mackenzie's new report warns that about 20% of global refining capacity faces rising closure risk as refined product demand peaks in the early 2030s. The report projects demand will reach 108 million barrels per day in 2032 before declining, driven by slower population growth, electrification, and fuel efficiency gains. Gasoline demand will suffer most from EV adoption, while diesel and jet fuel stay resilient due to heavy transport and aviation challenges. Refiners are being pushed to adapt through petrochemical integration, carbon capture, and diversification into renewables and storage. But high costs for CCS and the difficulty of justifying new capacity as demand falls create tough choices. India is expected to add 40% of new refining capacity through 2030, while some plants may convert to storage or close permanently.