This Commonplace essay by Joseph Majkut looks at what the science of climate change really shows, without doom or dismissal. It covers the basics: CO2 levels rose from 399 to 426 parts per million between 2015 and 2025, global temperature went from about 1.1 to 1.4 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, and emissions stayed nearly flat. The piece also explains what scientists can and cannot attribute to climate change, using the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave and the 2025 Los Angeles fires as examples. Majkut argues that the next generation of conservative leaders will deal with climate change as a fact, not a forecast. He separates detection and attribution confidence across heat, heavy rain, drought, and severe storms, and notes where uncertainty remains. For anyone following climate policy or carbon markets, this is a useful grounding in what is settled and what is still being measured.
