Voestalpine Doubles in a Year: EU Carbon Rules and Rail Orders Drive Steel Giant's Rally

Voestalpine shares surged 110% in 12 months as EU carbon regulations and rail infrastructure orders offset weak auto demand. The steelmaker's EBITDA hit 1.5 billion euros and net profit jumped 138%, driven by margin improvements and a 1.5 billion euro investment in electric arc furnaces to cut CO2 emissions by 4 million tonnes by 2029. EU carbon pricing through ETS and CBAM makes emissions-intensive imports more expensive, benefiting European producers like Voestalpine. The company also benefits from reduced duty-free import quotas and higher tariffs on foreign steel. However, US tariffs at 50% remain a headwind. Management guides for EBITDA of 1.6 to 1.85 billion euros in 2026/27, with a new dividend policy tied to debt levels.