A new study from MIT and Columbia finds that the U.S. power sector will still achieve about two-thirds of the emissions reductions originally expected under the Biden climate law, even after the 2025 GOP budget law slashed renewable subsidies and rolled back EPA rules. The analysis projects that 71% of new clean generation and 67% of emissions cuts will occur over the next decade compared to a scenario without the rollbacks. Fossil generation is 19% higher over the study period, with coal plants closing more slowly and gas plants running more, but the overall trajectory remains mostly intact. The study uses Energy Innovation's policy simulator to model power sources and emissions from 2025 to 2035. It notes that real-world factors like Big Tech deals supporting geothermal and nuclear projects could further boost clean energy. The author calls for permitting reform and transmission buildout to accelerate the transition, and for stronger methane standards on new gas plants. The bottom line is that the clean energy transition slows but is not kneecapped by the policy rollbacks, though closing the remaining gap requires deliberate action on grid infrastructure and firm power sources.
