New research from the University of Utah and UC Santa Barbara reveals that carbon credit buffer pools are insufficient to cover projected forest losses. In the American West, the risk of carbon reversals from wildfires and pests far exceeds current accounting standards, potentially undermining the credibility of nature-based offsets. Study findings suggest that programs like California's compliance market may need to expand their buffer reserves by six times to account for future climate disturbances. With wildfire risk projected to rise from 10% to 33% of land area, the research emphasizes the need for spatially explicit risk maps to ensure carbon permanence.
