The UNEP 2026 Emissions Gap Report says the window to keep global warming below 1.5C has closed. To return to that level by 2100 under the lowest overshoot scenario, global emissions would need to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040 compared with 2025 levels. It also calls for scaling up carbon dioxide removal over the century. Current national climate plans are far short. Full implementation of existing NDCs would cut emissions only 5% to 8% by 2030 and 11% to 15% by 2035, putting the world on track for about 2.6C of warming. With current policies alone, warming would reach 2.8C. The report still points to opportunities: renewables have expanded rapidly since the Paris Agreement, coal and oil supply growth has slowed, and proven policies can be scaled. The sectoral benchmarks for renewables, energy intensity, fossil fuel share, and methane are where the practical detail sits.
