The UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2026 lays out the gap between current climate pledges and what is needed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Compared to 2025 levels, global greenhouse gas emissions must fall 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035. That means average annual reductions of 5.7% over the next decade, alongside steep cuts in fossil fuel supply: coal down at least 55%, oil down 15%, and natural gas down 5% by 2035. Methane emissions also need to drop 25%. The report warns that current policies put the world on track for 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100. Full implementation of current national climate plans would bring that down to 2.6 degrees, and fully meeting net-zero pledges would reach 2.1 degrees. Staying under 1.5 degrees with only a minimal overshoot would require removing and permanently storing roughly 320 billion tons of carbon dioxide over the century. UNEP also notes that renewable energy has grown quickly since the Paris Agreement, with solar photovoltaic capacity expanding sevenfold. The report's numbers give a concrete benchmark for carbon markets, project finance, and policy design over the next decade.
