The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026 says holding warming to 1.5C without overshoot is no longer possible, but returning to that level by 2100 still is if emissions fall about 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040. That means annual cuts near 6% from 2025 to 2035, plus large-scale carbon dioxide removal. The report warns that every five years of current emissions adds about 0.1C of peak warming. Under current policies the world is on track for roughly 2.8C by 2100. Meeting Paris pledges gets to 2.6C, and adding net-zero targets brings it down to 2.1C. The report also notes solar has grown seven times faster than expected and wind has beaten forecasts, so renewable scale-up is feasible. The hard part is applying similar structural changes to methane, coal, and industrial emissions.
