UNEP's annual Emissions Gap Report concludes that temporarily exceeding 1.5C is now unavoidable after decades of insufficient action. Even the lowest overshoot scenario would see warming peak at 1.7-1.8C around mid-century before declining. The report says keeping the Paris goal within reach would require global emissions cuts of 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035, while scaling up carbon dioxide removal. Current national pledges fall far short. Full implementation of new 2035 NDCs would cut emissions by 3.5 GtCO2e relative to 2030 targets, but the report says that is nowhere near enough. It also notes the US emissions rose by 133 MtCO2e in 2025 due to higher electricity demand and a coal rebound, and that the narrowing implementation gap is driven by US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, not policy progress. The report still sees room for action, pointing to solar growth and EV adoption as signs of change in power and transport. But it warns that data centre electricity demand is projected to double by 2030, and land-use emissions could rise again with a super El Nino in 2026. The core message is that overshoot is now locked in, and the goal is to limit its size and duration.
