The UN Environment Programme's latest emissions gap report projects that current national climate pledges would still lead to about 2.6C of warming by 2100, well above the Paris Agreement targets. The report specifically highlights the United States as a major factor, pointing to its formal withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and a 133 megaton increase in CO2 equivalent emissions driven by higher electricity demand and a rebound in coal generation. That US policy shift alone is estimated to add about 0.1C to global temperatures by the end of the century. The report also notes that most of the top 20 economies slowed or reduced their carbon pollution last year, while the US accounted for roughly 70 percent of the net increase among the 124 countries that raised emissions. UN officials say global emissions need to fall 18 percent by 2030 and 69 percent by 2040 to keep warming at a manageable level. The findings reinforce that policy choices, not just technology costs, are determining how fast the world can decarbonize.
