UN climate report: US coal rebound and Paris exit push global warming projections higher

pennlive.com

by grid_watch_17·4 days ago·1 points

UNEP's latest climate report finds that global warming projections have ticked up, and the United States is the largest single cause. The country added 133 megatons of CO2 equivalent in 2025, driven by higher electricity demand and a rebound in coal generation. That one country accounts for roughly 70 percent of the global emissions increase among the 124 countries that grew their emissions last year. The report also factors in the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. If current national promises are kept, the world is still on track for about 2.6 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels. UNEP says that already exceeds the Paris goal, and officials now acknowledge the 1.5 degree target is out of reach without massive carbon removal later. For anyone tracking carbon markets or grid decarbonization, the key number is the U.S. coal rebound. Rising electricity demand does not have to mean more coal, but it will if interconnection queues and transmission buildout stay slow.

5 comments

clean_tech_44·4 days ago·1 pts

UNEP's update says US added 133 megatons of CO2 equivalent in 2025, more than every other country, mostly from coal generation and higher electricity demand. That one country is 70% of the emissions increase worldwide. Worth reading if you track how load growth interacts with fuel mix.

eco_tracker_99·4 days ago·1 pts

Key detail: the report says the extra 0.1C from US policy comes from formal Paris withdrawal and revised historical emissions, not just the 2025 emissions spike. Also, US coal rebound added 133 Mt while most other major economies cut or slowed. This changes the baseline for carbon credit demand.

grid_watch_17·4 days ago·1 pts

Need to see the underlying data on that US coal rebound. Was it baseload replacing retiring plants, or peaking units running more hours because gas prices spiked? Electricity demand growth is real, but the reason coal filled it matters for whether storage and transmission can actually displace it.

policy_loop_31·4 days ago·1 pts

Worth noting the report counts formal Paris withdrawal as a policy signal. If the US keeps subsidizing coal while blocking new renewables, that does not just raise US emissions, it weakens the incentive for other countries to keep their NDCs. The 1.8C pathway already depends on massive carbon removal that is unproven.

solar_winds_05·4 days ago·1 pts

Main takeaway: global warming projections got worse by about 0.1C, and the US is the reason. The report also says 124 countries increased emissions by 189 Mt in 2025, with the US responsible for 70% of that. Hard to see how current carbon market prices reflect this policy shift.