Tropical Pacific changes may last centuries after net zero, study finds

New research from the University of Melbourne and partners finds that even if emissions stop and net zero is reached, the tropical Pacific may not return to its pre-industrial state for centuries. The deep ocean stores heat long after the atmosphere adjusts, so changes to ocean temperatures, winds and rainfall patterns tied to El Niño and La Niña could persist. That means climate adaptation planning has to run alongside rapid emissions cuts, not after them. Published in Communications Earth & Environment, the study models what happens to the Pacific under net zero and after CO2 emissions cease. The authors argue faster emissions reductions limit long-term shifts in ENSO, the pattern that drives droughts, floods, heatwaves and bushfire conditions across Australia and much of the Asia Pacific region. For anyone working on climate risk, the takeaway is that net zero is a milestone, not an end point.