TotalEnergies published its eighth Energy Outlook on November 2, 2026, covering global energy scenarios through 2060. The report estimates that current policy trends would lead to 2.6C to 2.8C of warming by 2100, while a more coordinated rupture scenario could hold warming to 1.8C to 1.9C. Low-carbon investment reached $2.1 trillion in 2025, up 75% from 2015, but the company says that is not enough to keep the world below 2C. Oil demand is expected to peak between 2035 and 2040, with faster EV adoption as the main reason. The outlook also highlights regional divergence: China dominates solar, wind, and EV production, the US keeps fossil fuels at roughly 60% of primary energy through 2060, and the EU still relies on fossil fuels for about 60% of primary energy in 2035. The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis pushed energy security up the agenda, which could either slow or accelerate the transition depending on policy choices.
