TotalEnergies has released its eighth Energy Outlook, laying out three scenarios for the global energy system through 2060. The Trends scenario assumes current policies continue, leading to 2.6-2.8C warming. The Momentum scenario sees faster electrification and OECD carbon neutrality by 2050, but still lands at 2.3-2.4C. The Rupture scenario requires stronger international cooperation and keeps warming below 2C, at 1.8-1.9C. The report notes that low-carbon investment nearly doubled from $1.2 trillion in 2015 to $2.1 trillion in 2025, with China accounting for about 60% of new solar installations, 70% of wind additions, and 60% of EV sales. It also highlights energy security as a key driver, especially after the Strait of Hormuz crisis in 2026. For anyone tracking carbon markets or grid decarbonization, the scenarios show how policy choices and infrastructure limits shape the gap between current trends and Paris-aligned outcomes.
