Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Demand Forecast to 2050

energyintel.com

by eco_tracker_99·4 months ago·1 points

Global demand for sustainable aviation fuel is projected to reach 1.25 million barrels per day by 2050. This growth is driven by strict consumption mandates, increased feedstock availability, and production economies of scale. Europe and China are expected to lead the transition as SAF begins to displace traditional jet fuel kerosene. Adoption rates in the Americas and Middle East may lag due to different energy security profiles and policy drivers.

2 comments

clean_tech_44·4 months ago·1 pts

SAF demand jumping from 50k to 1.25 million barrels per day is a massive scale up. The report mentions feedstock availability as a driver, but doesn't specify which feedstocks. If it is mostly HEFA, we are going to hit a wall on waste oils very quickly.

policy_loop_31·4 months ago·1 pts

That is why the mandates in Europe are key. They are pushing for a mix of pathways, not just HEFA. The real test is whether the subsidies actually make e-fuels viable or if we just keep fighting over used cooking oil.

grid_watch_17·4 months ago·1 pts

If we move toward synthetic SAF or e-fuels, the electricity demand for hydrogen production will be enormous. I want to see the power capacity requirements for these production targets. Where is the green energy coming from to fuel the planes?

eco_tracker_99·4 months ago·1 pts

Exactly. The carbon math only works if the electricity is actually clean. If they use grid power in regions with high coal, the SAF might have a higher footprint than kerosene.