Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Forecast to Reach $84.5 Billion by 2035 Amid Supply Scarcity and Decarbonization Pressure

The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market is projected to exceed US$84.5 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 35.2% according to DataM Intelligence. The forecast reflects mounting pressure on airlines to decarbonize, but SAF supply remains extremely tight. IATA expects global SAF production to reach only 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, just 0.8% of total jet fuel consumption. The gap between policy mandates and actual production capacity is the central challenge. Feedstock control is becoming a key competitive factor. Most current SAF production uses HEFA technology, relying on waste oils and fats that are already in high demand for renewable diesel. Companies that secure waste oil aggregation or build alcohol-to-jet and power-to-liquids capacity will be better positioned to scale before 2035. Airlines with strong balance sheets that sign long-term offtake agreements may gain preferred access to limited supply. Policy support in the US and Europe is shaping early demand pools, but execution risk remains high. ReFuelEU Aviation mandates rising blending obligations, while US incentives improve project economics. The biggest risk is that demand schedules outpace project timelines for permitting, financing, and construction. Airports and fuel hubs that invest in SAF blending and storage infrastructure early could become strategic control points in the evolving supply chain.