A new analysis from Carbon Brief shows the current El Niño has tied the previous daily record for sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region, with readings around 3.07C as of 19 September. This is notable because El Niño typically peaks later in the year, and all prior strong events have continued to strengthen after mid-September. Forecast models suggest the event could reach a monthly anomaly of around 4.1C, far surpassing the 2015-16 record. The record-breaking strength is partly due to climate change, though the analysis uses different indices to separate natural variability from human-driven warming. The event is expected to boost global temperatures, with most of the impact felt in 2027. This has implications for climate policy, extreme weather planning, and carbon market expectations, as stronger El Niño events often correlate with higher emissions from fires and reduced renewable energy output in some regions.
