Super El Niño projected to cause 451,000 heat deaths across Nigeria, Indonesia, and other regions

The Climate Impact Lab projects that the record-strength El Niño will cause about 451,000 additional heat deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, with the heaviest tolls in Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil. The estimate, released before the event peaks, maps expected deaths by region so that cooling centres, heat forecasts, and worker protections can be directed where they save the most lives. The report also notes the event could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027. Researchers stress that while emergency response can reduce deaths this year, today's extreme temperatures are expected to become normal within 20 years. The key test is whether adaptation funding follows the report's map. The projections will be updated as the event unfolds, and the authors have submitted the work for peer review.