Sumitomo Metal Mining expects global nickel supply to exceed demand by 34,000 metric tons in 2027, a smaller surplus than this year's estimated 38,000 tons. The forecast assumes Indonesian nickel pig iron output recovers 11.9% to 1.88 million tons, even as Jakarta weighs limits on new processing plants. LME three-month nickel closed around $16,481 per ton in early October, well below the May spike near $20,000. Demand is still growing. Sumitomo sees nickel consumption rising 6% to 3.92 million tons in 2027, helped by stainless steel, specialty steel for AI data centers, and battery demand climbing to 620,000 tons. But LFP batteries, which use no nickel, cap how much EV growth translates into metal demand. The key swing factor remains Indonesia's mining quotas and whether it can keep supply tight without idling its smelters.
