Researchers from UC Santa Barbara and the University of Utah found that current carbon credit systems, including those managed by the California Air Resources Board, significantly underestimate the risk of carbon loss from wildfires, pests, and droughts. In some regions of the American West, the chance of a carbon reversal exceeds 80% over the next century. The study suggests that existing buffer pools, which act as insurance against forest loss, may need to be six times larger to accurately cover expected losses. The team has released interactive tools to help policymakers and investors identify low-risk areas for more durable nature-based climate solutions.
