Researchers from UC Santa Barbara and the University of Utah found that current carbon credit systems, including those managed by the California Air Resources Board, significantly underestimate the risk of forest die-backs. The study suggests that buffer pools intended to cover carbon losses from wildfires and pests may need to be six times larger to be effective over a century. Using satellite data and machine learning, the team mapped high-risk areas across the US, noting that the American West is particularly vulnerable. The findings highlight a critical need for climate-informed risk assessments to ensure nature-based offsets actually provide the carbon sequestration they claim.
