New research published in PLOS Climate finds that emissions from 178 major oil, gas, and cement companies will continue warming the planet for centuries, even if they stopped emitting today. The study, which modeled climate through 2500, shows these past emissions already account for a large share of current and future warming, with half produced after 1986 when climate risks were well known. That means the carbon majors are responsible for damages that will persist long after their operations cease, underscoring the need for rapid phase-down and adaptation measures. For carbon markets and climate policy, the findings highlight why permanent emission reductions from these companies are critical. The study also suggests that future scenarios with lower emissions make past contributions more dominant, meaning that early action on fossil fuel phase-out could reduce total warming. However, adaptation remains essential because some warming is already locked in. This is a useful reference for anyone tracking the long-term liability of fossil fuel producers and the urgency of transitioning to low-carbon energy systems.
