Strathcona Resources shares returned 47.8% over the past year including dividends, yet analysts still disagree on fair value. Bullish estimates sit at CA$41, bearish at CA$34. The gap comes down to the MEG Energy deal, heavy oil exposure, and how much carbon policy risk will hit oil sands earnings. Recent progress supports the bull case. First steam at Meota Central came ahead of schedule, and Q2 2026 results showed revenue of CA$1,345m and net income of CA$333m, with net margin at 24.8%. The stock now trades near CA$38.57, so the market is still weighing whether organic production growth and carbon capture spending can offset acquisition and decarbonization risks. Read the full analysis to see the assumptions behind each fair value estimate and how Strathcona is positioning itself as a lower-emission oil sands producer.
