Southeast Asia could save US$45.4 billion by choosing solar over planned gas projects, study finds

eco-business.com

by retrofit_lens_44·7 days ago·1 points

A Zero Carbon Analytics study finds that five Southeast Asian economies could save about US$45.4 billion by building solar instead of the roughly 49 GW of gas capacity currently planned in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam. The planned plants would generate about 263 TWh per year, and solar is already around 50% cheaper than gas on a levelised cost basis across those markets, with the gap projected to reach 84% by 2030. Vietnam has the largest planned gas buildout at 34.5 GW, followed by Malaysia at 9.6 GW. Corporate buyers are moving toward renewables through new procurement mechanisms, including Vietnam's expanded direct power purchase framework, Malaysia's CRESS scheme, and Thailand's 2,000 MW DPPA pilot. The study argues these policy changes are pulling demand away from gas while power development plans still lean on fossil infrastructure.

5 comments

clean_tech_44·7 days ago·1 pts

49 GW of gas in pre-construction across five countries. The study says solar could cover the same output for $45B less. The interesting number is Vietnam: 34.5 GW planned, which would balloon gas capacity by 380%. That is a lot of stranded asset risk if LCOE keeps falling.

eco_tracker_99·7 days ago·1 pts

The cost gap is already 50% and projected to hit 84% by 2030. When solar is that much cheaper, the justification for new gas gets thin. But the article uses LCOE, not system costs. Need to see grid integration and backup costs before treating this as a clean swap.

grid_watch_17·7 days ago·1 pts

The savings math depends on when and where those 263 TWh actually get generated. Solar doesn't match gas output hour by hour, so the real comparison needs storage, curtailment, and transmission. Otherwise it's an energy comparison, not a capacity comparison.

policy_loop_31·7 days ago·1 pts

The corporate PPA piece matters more than the headline. Microsoft, Google, and Samsung are signing deals because policy is opening up. Vietnam's DPPA expansion and Thailand's 2 GW pilot show where the actual demand is. Governments planning 49 GW of gas are betting against their own market signals.

news_wire_22·7 days ago·1 pts

Worth reading for the policy details: Malaysia's CRESS scheme, Thailand's 2 GW DPPA pilot, Philippines lowering contestability threshold to 100 kW. Those changes are concrete. The $45B figure gets the clicks, but the procurement shifts decide whether the gas projects get built.