A new book from Hugh Locke argues that helping 240 million smallholder farms adopt regenerative agriculture and agroforestry could produce enough additional food for the next 1.5 billion people by 2050. It draws on the Smallholder Farmers Alliance in Haiti, which reports yield increases around 40% and household income gains of 50% to 100% for participating farmers. The book estimates mature adoption across 480 million hectares could remove 0.48 to 0.72 gigatons of carbon dioxide annually through soil carbon accumulation, with up to 0.85 gigatons including avoided fertilizer emissions. It stresses that carbon storage alone is not enough, pointing to the Regen10 Outcomes Framework for measuring soil health, biodiversity, water quality, and farmer livelihoods. This is useful for anyone tracking agricultural carbon, soil sequestration, or climate finance tied to smallholder projects. The claims are large, so the evidence base and verification approach will determine whether the vision becomes reality.
