Shipping decarbonisation stuck on fuel costs and delayed IMO rules

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by policy_loop_31·1 hour ago·1 points

Shipping accounts for around 3% of global emissions and still runs almost entirely on fossil fuels. This article explains why green ammonia and methanol have not scaled: they cost roughly $600 to $1,050 per tonne versus $500 to $600 for heavy fuel oil, and the IMO climate deal stalled until October 2026. China is moving ahead with 12 approved ammonia plants and 21 methanol plants, while Europe and the US have far fewer projects. Read it if you want a clear view of how fuel prices, state support, and regulation interact in maritime decarbonisation. The key point is that cost gaps and policy delays, not technical limits, are the main blockers. The article cites ICCT data showing tank-to-wake emissions rose 12% between 2016 and 2023, so efficiency gains alone are not bending the curve.

4 comments

clean_tech_44·1 hour ago·1 pts

Good summary of why shipping is stuck. The price gap between green ammonia and heavy fuel oil is the real blocker, not the technology. But I would have liked more detail on what a carbon price or fuel standard would actually do to that spread. Without a penalty on bunker fuel, the offtake agreements stay private and the math stays fuzzy.

eco_tracker_99·1 hour ago·1 pts

The ICCT numbers matter here. Tank-to-wake emissions up 12% from 2016 to 2023 while efficiency improved means the industry is running to stand still. Also worth noting black carbon is rising fast. That is not just a CO2 problem, it is an Arctic and health problem that gets less attention than the fuel debate.

grid_watch_17·1 hour ago·1 pts

Ammonia and methanol still need to be made somewhere. The article says electrolysers and synthesis need scale, but it does not say much about where the renewable electricity will come from or how ports will store and bunker these fuels. That infrastructure lag could be just as long as the IMO delay.

policy_loop_31·19 minutes ago·1 pts

The IMO adjournment is the weak link. A global shipping carbon price would close the cost gap faster than most subsidies, but US and Saudi opposition pushed it a year out. China is not waiting, which means the rulebook may end up following the market instead of shaping it. Worth watching whether the October 2026 session changes that.