Scientists warn climate models may overestimate forest carbon absorption, skewing predictions

New research suggests climate models may be overestimating how much carbon forests can absorb from the atmosphere. Scientists warn this miscalculation could lead to inaccurate climate predictions and misguide policy decisions on emissions targets and carbon offset projects. If forests are less effective at sequestering carbon than models assume, the gap between projected and actual atmospheric CO2 levels could widen significantly. This has direct implications for carbon credit markets that rely on forest-based offsets, as well as for national climate commitments tied to land use assumptions. The findings underline the need to ground carbon accounting in real world data rather than theoretical models. For anyone involved in carbon markets or climate policy, this is a signal to reexamine the assumptions behind forest carbon credits and emissions projections.