New research from the University of Arizona, published in Nature Climate Change, reveals that drylands are becoming increasingly unstable. Over 40 years of satellite data show that rising atmospheric CO2 boosts plant growth in wet years, but also makes ecosystems more vulnerable to dry years. About 80% of global drylands are experiencing escalating year-to-year swings in vegetation activity, which threatens rain-fed agriculture and rangeland management. The study also finds that major global vegetation models fail to capture this volatility, meaning projections of future ecosystem behavior may be overly optimistic. This has serious implications for predicting climate impacts on food production and land management. Understanding these boom-bust cycles is critical for adapting agriculture and building resilience in the world's driest regions.
