SAF demand forecast and biomass feedstock pathway using torrefied wood pellets and Fischer-Tropsch conversion

A new white paper from FutureMetrics argues that torrefied wood pellets are the optimal feedstock for producing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at scale. The authors note that current SAF supply is below 1% of global aviation fuel demand, while forecasts call for 40 million tonnes per year by 2035 and over 300 million tonnes by 2050 if net zero targets are met. They point out that feedstocks like used cooking oil and animal fats are too limited to meet that demand, making woody biomass the only realistic option for large-scale production. The paper focuses on the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) conversion pathway, which gasifies carbon-rich biomass into CO and hydrogen, then synthesizes hydrocarbon chains identical to fossil aviation fuel. The authors argue that torrefied pellets with higher carbon content and lower moisture gasify more efficiently, reducing oxygen input and transport costs. They suggest that existing wood pellet producers have the expertise to supply consistent, high-carbon feedstock to SAF refineries, while SAF operators lack that biomass processing knowledge. The analysis includes a new dashboard that models the conversion of high-carbon woody biomass into SAF, renewable diesel, and LPG. The authors acknowledge they are not SAF market experts but claim strong expertise in biomass upgrading. They conclude that the FT pathway is technically proven with low technology risk, and that the main challenge is scaling up feedstock supply chains.