A new study from the University of Exeter challenges the long held belief that rising sea levels will help mangrove forests store more carbon. By modeling whole forest systems instead of individual sampling points, researchers found that as seas rise, mangroves drown and the carbon rich soils beneath them erode, releasing stored carbon back into the atmosphere. The study projects that over the next century, total carbon storage in mangroves will decline, especially under higher IPCC sea level rise scenarios. The research highlights a critical gap in how carbon storage is measured in coastal ecosystems. Field studies that sample specific locations often show increased carbon accumulation, but they miss the system wide losses from dying trees and eroding soils. Mangroves also provide storm protection, fish habitat, and shoreline stability, so the carbon loss is only part of the damage. The study underscores the need for landscape scale modeling to inform conservation and carbon offset projects.
