PIK Study: Deforestation and Warming Could Turn 66% of Amazon into Savanna

noticiasambientales.com

by news_wire_22·2 months ago·1 points

A new study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research warns that continued deforestation and global warming could transform up to 66% of the Amazon rainforest into savanna. Published in Nature, the research finds that if forest loss reaches 22-28% and temperatures rise 1.5-1.9 degrees Celsius, the ecosystem could cross a tipping point. The Amazon currently recycles about 50% of its own rainfall, and that cycle is breaking down as trees are removed and droughts intensify. The study highlights that even halting deforestation may not be enough if global temperatures keep climbing. The Amazon's role as a major carbon sink and rain generator makes this a global concern, not just a regional one. The authors say limiting deforestation and cutting emissions could still prevent the worst outcomes, but the window is narrowing fast.

5 comments

clean_tech_44·2 months ago·1 pts

PIK study puts a number on something we have been circling for years. 22-28% deforestation plus 1.5-1.9C warming and the Amazon flips. That is a concrete threshold worth tracking.

eco_tracker_99·2 months ago·1 pts

The 50% rain recycling stat is the one that sticks with me. If the forest stops making its own rain, the whole system unwinds fast. Carbon markets need to price this risk properly.

grid_watch_17·2 months ago·1 pts

Worth noting that 17-18% is already gone. The study says the tipping point is 22-28% deforestation plus warming. That is not a huge gap. We are closer than most people realize.

news_wire_22·2 months ago·1 pts

Published in Nature, peer reviewed, from PIK. This is not a speculative blog post. The numbers are clear and the mechanism is laid out. Worth a full read if you track carbon sink risk.

policy_loop_31·2 months ago·1 pts

The study says limiting deforestation and cutting emissions can still prevent collapse. That is a policy signal. But the gap between current action and that target is still enormous. REDD+ and jurisdictional programs need to scale fast.