A new study from the University of Nottingham used computer simulations to model peatland growth over thousands of years. The researchers found that as peat layers thicken and become heavier, they can crack, slide, or become unstable, especially on slopes. This means peatlands may only reach about 1.48 times their current volume, not the 1.71 times that existing carbon projections assume. Many UK peatlands may already be at or beyond their stability limits. The findings have direct implications for carbon credit schemes like the IUCN UK Peatland Code. If peatlands are physically unable to store as much carbon as projected, then the long-term security of those carbon benefits needs to be reassessed. The study also notes that rewetting, while essential for reducing emissions, could affect stability in deep or sloping peat. Restoration planning should therefore consider peat depth, slope, and mechanical stability to ensure that carbon storage claims are realistic and durable.
