New climate simulations show that carbon dioxide already released by major oil, gas, coal, and cement producers will continue warming the planet for centuries. Even in a future with steep emissions cuts, those past emissions still add about 0.8°F (0.45°C) of warming in the year 2500. The study uses the Carbon Majors database, which links 178 producers to more than 1.2 trillion metric tons of CO2 released through 2024, and runs the FaIR climate model to trace their impact across four different emissions scenarios. The research highlights that methane leaks cause a short-term temperature bump that fades in decades, while CO2 lingers for centuries. The authors note that their model is less reliable in the highest emission futures, and they call for validation in more detailed Earth system models. Because the estimate only includes emissions through 2024, the real long-term warming from these producers will be higher as extraction continues. The findings also strengthen legal cases that tie specific companies to climate damages, since the attribution window now extends far beyond typical planning horizons.
