Paper industry overstated cardboard recycling rates for years, misleading policy and consumers

A commentary piece examines how the American Forest and Paper Association inflated its cardboard recycling rate by 25 percentage points, claiming 93.6% when the real figure is much lower. The author argues this misleading math has driven packaging policy and consumer behavior for years, with most cardboard still ending up in landfills. The piece revisits a 1996 New York Times article that questioned whether recycling actually reduces carbon emissions. It notes that plastic bags have a lower carbon footprint than paper on a single-use basis, and that recycling cardboard requires more trucks and factory processing, generating more emissions. Critics say policymakers need accurate data to create effective laws around packaging, procurement, and extended producer responsibility. The article highlights how inflated recycling statistics have shaped environmental regulations without delivering real decarbonization results.