Oilsands emissions growth to outpace Pathways carbon capture reductions, economist warns | carboncredit.io

A new analysis from the Canadian Climate Institute warns that oilsands emissions from increased production enabled by a new West Coast pipeline will far exceed the reductions expected from the Pathways carbon storage project. Environmental economist Dave Sawyer estimates 20 megatonnes of new annual emissions from expanded pipeline capacity, while Pathways now targets storing only 6 megatonnes per year starting in 2035, down from an earlier goal of 22 megatonnes by 2030. The Pathways project, backed by Cenovus, Imperial Oil, Suncor, Canadian Natural Resources, and ConocoPhillips, involves a CO2 pipeline network to an underground storage hub near Cold Lake, Alberta. Costs have ballooned from $16.5 billion to an estimated $20-30 billion, with governments covering 90% of the new pipeline's projected $43.7 billion price tag. The Pembina Institute calculates that even under optimistic scenarios, oilsands emissions will remain 19% higher than current measures with Pathways alone. Critics argue that carbon capture remains a high-cost, unproven technology at scale, and that stronger industrial carbon pricing would be more effective. Rural landowners and Indigenous communities have raised safety concerns about pressurized CO2 pipelines crossing their land. The article underscores the tension between production growth and meaningful emissions reduction in Canada's oilsands sector.