A new analysis from the Canadian Climate Institute warns that rising oil sands emissions will outpace the reductions expected from the Pathways Alliance carbon capture and storage (CCS) network. The report finds that even if the proposed CCS projects are fully built, total emissions from the sector will continue to grow due to planned production increases. This casts doubt on the industry's claim that CCS alone can deliver net-zero emissions by 2050. The findings highlight a gap between corporate climate pledges and actual emission trajectories. For carbon market participants, this means that demand for carbon credits from Canadian oil sands may stay high, but the credibility of offset-based abatement strategies is under scrutiny. The report suggests that without deeper production cuts or faster deployment of non-CCS mitigation, the sector will miss its climate targets.
