New Study: Arctic Permafrost Could Become Major Carbon Source Earlier Than Expected

A new study published in Science Advances warns that Arctic permafrost regions may shift from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source decades sooner than many climate models predict. The research incorporates deeper permafrost carbon reservoirs that are often left out of simulations, and finds that under high-emissions scenarios, the transition could happen within this century. Permafrost stores roughly twice as much carbon as is currently in the atmosphere, and thawing releases CO2 and methane, creating a feedback loop that amplifies global warming. The study adds to a pattern of upward revisions in Arctic climate research. The region is now warming about four times faster than the global average, and permafrost degradation is already affecting infrastructure and ecosystems across the North. Unlike sea ice loss, permafrost thaw directly increases atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that are very hard to reverse on human timescales. The findings suggest that international climate targets may be harder to achieve than current projections assume, as the Arctic becomes not just a responder to climate change but an active driver of it.