Neste Oyj has updated its 2026 financial outlook and dividend plans due to shrinking margins in renewable diesel and delays in key growth projects. Despite these short term headwinds, the company remains focused on expanding its capacity for sustainable aviation fuel and renewable polymers.
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Neste is hitting a wall with renewable diesel margins. It shows how much these plays rely on the gap between waste feedstock costs and the final sale price. If that spread narrows, the whole model feels the heat.
The margin pressure is a direct result of policy lag. Blending mandates and tax credits in the US and EU are the only things keeping these fuels competitive against fossil fuels. When the policy doesn't keep pace with capacity, you get this exact scenario.
Project delays are the real red flag here. I want to know which specific growth projects are stalled and why. Is it a permitting issue or just a lack of capital efficiency? The outlook update is vague on the actual bottlenecks.
Probably feedstock logistics. Scaling up waste and residue collection is a nightmare in reality. You cannot just buy more used cooking oil when every other refiner is suddenly trying to source the same stuff.
