The Murray-Darling Basin Authority's 2026 review relies on the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario, which a group of nearly 50 IPCC scientists recently labeled as implausible. The article argues this worst-case model is used to justify water buybacks that hurt irrigation agriculture, while historical data shows the basin has actually become wetter over the past century. Critics say the MDBA ignores this evidence and fails to consider alternative water infrastructure options. The piece also highlights that the IPCC scientists scrapped SSP5-8.5 due to falling renewable costs and stronger climate policy, making extreme emissions unlikely. The MDBA's own sustainable yields report gives a 90% probability to the driest scenario, which many see as alarmist. The article calls for planning new dams to secure water for both the environment and food production as Australia's population grows. For anyone tracking climate policy or water management in Australia, this is a significant dispute about how scientific models are applied to real-world decisions. The tension between model projections and observed trends is a core issue for carbon and climate policy discussions.
