A new MIT Sloan study analyzing over 7,200 transactions from 2018 to 2024 found that buyer identity explains 62% of price variation in voluntary carbon credits. Identical credits traded from a few cents to over $100 per ton, with no correlation to climate impact. Large buyers paid 16% to 23% less than smaller firms, while financial and consumer goods companies paid premiums of 9% to 22% over industrial buyers. The study reveals that projects with strong narratives, like forest protection and cookstove distribution, sold for two to four times the price of more effective industrial waste management projects. Standardized futures contracts failed because buyers prefer specific project stories over generic baskets. Researchers recommend delayed post-trade price reporting through the CFTC to improve transparency without killing market flexibility.
