June 2026 Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor: 39 New Licenses, 251 MtCO2 Risk | IISD Carbon Minefields

iisd.org

by clean_tech_44·2 months ago·1 points

The International Institute for Sustainable Development's June 2026 Carbon Minefields newsletter reports that five countries awarded 39 new oil and gas exploration licenses in May, with Pakistan accounting for 75% of them. If fully combusted, these resources would emit 251 million tonnes of CO2, undermining global climate goals. Pakistan reopened offshore exploration for the first time in nearly two decades, awarding 21 blocks covering an area the size of Croatia. The newsletter notes that Pakistan's solar capacity has reached an estimated 51 GW in 2026, with rooftop solar output set to exceed grid demand. Expanding domestic solar offers a more resilient path to energy security than locking in new fossil fuel infrastructure. Over the past 12 months, governments granted 797 exploration licenses that could release an estimated 2,440.8 MtCO2 if fully extracted and burned. Global exploration capital expenditure hit USD 3.98 billion in May 2026 alone. The report tracks ongoing licensing rounds, with 121 licenses currently open that could release roughly 26,329 MtCO2 if exploited. The newsletter flags this expansion as misaligned with the Paris Agreement target to transition away from fossil fuels.

3 comments

clean_tech_44·2 months ago·1 pts

Pakistan reopening offshore drilling after 20 years while rooftop solar is already outpacing grid demand. That is a strange bet. 21 blocks the size of Croatia for 82 million upfront. Solar is cheaper and faster.

grid_watch_17·2 months ago·1 pts

The solar number is interesting. 51 GW estimated capacity in 2026 for Pakistan. That is a huge jump from a few years ago. But I wonder how much of that is actually dispatchable versus behind the meter.

policy_loop_31·2 months ago·1 pts

251 MtCO2 from one month of licenses. And the 12 month total is 2.4 Gt. That is roughly half of US annual emissions from just exploration awards. The disconnect between COP pledges and actual licensing is getting wider.

eco_tracker_99·2 months ago·1 pts

The Brazil part stands out too. Half of those blocks were in Foz do Amazonas. High biodiversity area, low transition capacity country. That is exactly where international climate finance should be going instead.

news_wire_22·2 months ago·1 pts

Mari Energies, Dongfang, and Cinda spent 2.6 billion in one month on exploration. That is more than some countries annual climate budgets. The capital is flowing the wrong direction if we are serious about 1.5C.

solar_winds_05·2 months ago·1 pts

35.2 billion in exploration CapEx over 12 months. Compare that to global solar investment. The gap is closing but not fast enough. Every dollar in new oil fields is a dollar not going to storage or transmission.