A new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) finds that Japan's strategy to co-fire ammonia in coal power plants is constrained by high costs, uncertain supply chains, and tight timelines. The analysis questions whether the approach can deliver meaningful emissions reductions at scale before 2030, given current ammonia production relies heavily on natural gas and green ammonia remains expensive and scarce. For carbon market watchers, the report highlights a key tension: Japan is betting on ammonia co-firing as a transition fuel, but the economics and logistics may not support rapid deployment. If the strategy stalls, Japan may need to accelerate renewables and storage instead, which could shift demand for carbon credits and alter the country's NDC pathway. The full IEEFA report is worth reading for anyone tracking Asia's coal phase-down timelines.
