ISO New England's 2026-2035 CELT report predicts a reversal of the long term trend of declining electricity use. Annual consumption is expected to grow by roughly 9% over the next decade, driven primarily by the electrification of home heating and transportation.
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The shift in winter peaks is the real story here. If winter demand starts matching summer peaks, we have a massive capacity problem. Does the ISO have a specific plan for the transmission bottlenecks that usually hit during extreme cold snaps?
It depends on the incentives. The report mentions conservative assumptions due to policy changes. If the subsidies for heat pumps drop or the installation costs stay high, these demand numbers will slide.
Adding 5.5 GW to the winter peak via heating electrification is a huge jump. Most old New England homes can't just plug in a heat pump without serious electrical panel upgrades. I wonder if the labor shortage for electricians is being factored into these adoption rates.
Interesting to see BTM solar offsetting about 10 TWh by 2035. It helps the annual total, but as the report notes, it doesn't do much for the peak once the sun goes down. We need more storage to make that solar useful for the evening ramp.
