Ireland's building emissions dropped again in 2025, with residential emissions falling 5% and commercial buildings down 3.5%, according to the Climate Change Advisory Council. But the council warns that the reductions were partly due to a mild winter, not structural change. The outlook for 2026-2030 is grim: residential buildings are projected to exceed their legal emissions ceiling by 22%, and commercial buildings by 62%. The report highlights a major delivery gap. Only 84,000 homes have been upgraded to a B2 BER since 2019, well short of the 120,000 target. Heat pump installations reached just 41% of the 45,000 goal. District heating capacity is expected to reach only 0.2 TWh by 2030 versus a 2.7 TWh target. Social housing retrofits need to double to 5,000 per year. The council calls for urgent publication of the National Building Renovation Plan, multi-annual funding, and a clear phaseout of fossil fuel boilers by 2040. On the positive side, enhanced grants in early 2026 drove a 96% jump in retrofit applications. The council also urges including climate resilience measures like flood protection and heatwave adaptation in renovation plans. The test now is whether policy ambition can translate into actual delivery on the ground.
