Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels fell 0.4% in 2026, but scientists attribute the drop to the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, not to clean energy progress. Oil emissions fell nearly 2%, while coal actually rose 0.6%. This is the third time emissions have dropped this century, following the 2009 recession and the 2020 pandemic, and past recoveries have reversed the gains. The study, from the Global Carbon Project, also notes that total CO2 including land use rose 1% due to deforestation and peat fires. China's emissions dropped about 1%, raising hopes that they may have peaked, but experts remain split on whether this is a structural shift or a war-related blip. The article underscores that the world still emits over 1,000 metric tons of CO2 per second, and that any lasting reduction requires deliberate policy, not crisis-driven shocks.
