Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026, according to the Global Carbon Project. The drop is driven by the oil shock from the Iran war and continued growth in solar and wind power. Oil emissions are set to decline 1.9%, while natural gas falls 0.3% and coal rises 0.6%. The report warns this decline is not a peak. Clean energy growth is not fast enough to lock in a durable reduction. The war's impact on trade and prices is likely short-term, and coal use is increasing in Asia due to LNG price spikes. The findings come as COP31 opens in Turkey, with UN leaders urging faster climate action. The report highlights the gap between crisis-driven emissions dips and structural change needed for a lasting peak.
