Indonesia's Steel Trade Faces CBAM and Cheap Imports: Stainless Holds, Carbon Steel Struggles

asianews.network

by retrofit_lens_44·13 days ago·1 points

Indonesia's steel exports are facing pressure from two directions. Stainless steel, which is more export-oriented, grew 13.2% year on year to $5.8 billion from January to August 2026, despite the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism taking effect. Carbon steel, which relies on domestic demand, saw imports jump 112.3% year on year as low-priced global products undercut local mills. Overall iron and steel exports fell 4.9% to $17.8 billion, and the trade balance contracted 11.7%. Policy responses are starting to take shape. The article suggests integrating a domestic carbon tax with CBAM certificate pricing to lower the cost of carbon-based trade barriers, and removing obstacles to measurement, reporting and verification so Indonesian producers can make credible emission claims. It also calls for stronger enforcement of antidumping duties and energy incentives for domestic mills. For anyone tracking carbon border policy and industrial competitiveness in Southeast Asia, this is a useful look at how trade data and climate rules interact.

5 comments

clean_tech_44·13 days ago·1 pts

The CBAM angle is the part worth watching. Stainless exports grew 13.2% despite the new EU carbon border charge, but that could shift once the regime tightens. The bigger near-term problem is carbon steel imports jumping 112% while local producers sit on high energy costs. That's a competitiveness issue, not just a trade stat.

eco_tracker_99·13 days ago·1 pts

Good piece on how carbon policy and trade policy collide. Indonesia's steel sector turned from net importer to net exporter, but the trade balance contracted 11.7% yoy and carbon steel imports are climbing fast. The suggestion to link domestic carbon tax with CBAM certificate pricing is interesting, but only works if MRV is actually credible. Otherwise it's just a discount scheme.

grid_watch_17·13 days ago·1 pts

One thing missing is what 'renewable electricity in the domestic steel industry' would actually require on the grid side. Indonesia's renewables share is still low, and industrial buyers need firm supply, not just PPAs on paper. If the government wants green steel claims to hold up, it needs to show where the clean power is coming from and at what price.

policy_loop_31·13 days ago·1 pts

The piece is right that CBAM pushes Indonesia toward a domestic carbon price, but the logic runs both ways. A carbon tax only offsets CBAM if it covers the same emissions and avoids double counting. The harder part is enforcement of antidumping duties, which the article mentions but doesn't unpack. Dumping protection and carbon policy are two different fights.

retrofit_lens_44·13 days ago·1 pts

Steel is an energy-intensive industry, so the energy incentive part matters more than most coverage admits. Natural gas prices, coal dependence, and electricity tariffs decide whether Indonesian mills can compete. Also worth noting that carbon steel imports at 112% growth are basically a signal that domestic supply is too expensive or not the right spec. Buyers vote with orders.