Indonesia's wildfire emissions in 2026 are on track to match the record set in 2015, according to data from the Global Fire Emissions Database. As of September 7, fires had produced 76 million tonnes of carbon, putting the year on a similar trajectory to 2015 when fires emitted 333 MtC. The current El Niño, which began in June and is expected to last into 2027, is amplifying dry conditions and making fires more intense. The fires are heavily concentrated in peatland areas, which release large amounts of carbon when burned. Despite restoration efforts and a moratorium on land conversion, questions remain about whether these measures are sufficient. Experts note that regions like Papua and Papua New Guinea are experiencing fire activity similar to what Sumatra saw two decades ago, suggesting the problem is expanding rather than being solved.
