India draft steel policy: 604 MT capacity by 2047, coking coal demand triples, emissions still rise

India's draft National Steel Policy, Vision 2047, proposes raising crude steel capacity to 604 million tonnes a year by 2047, up from roughly 220 MTPA now. Finished steel demand is projected at 505 MT, with per capita use rising from 116 kg to 302 kg. The policy replaces the 2017 target of 300 MTPA by 2030 with a near-term projection of 294 MT. Raw materials are the main constraint. Coking coal demand is expected to triple to 236 MT a year, and India currently imports about 92% of its coking coal. The draft proposes buying overseas coal assets, expanding washeries, and using slurry pipelines to cut that dependence. It also sets a decarbonisation target of lowering emission intensity from 2.54 to 1.54 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of crude steel by 2047. Notably, the policy has no absolute emissions target. Based on its own projections, steel sector CO2 would rise from roughly 432 MT to 818 MT a year by 2047. That gap between intensity gains and total emissions is likely to be the main point of debate as the policy moves forward.