India CAFE III norms: Will fuel efficiency rules drive real EV adoption or just compliance?

India's proposed CAFE III fuel efficiency norms aim to cut average passenger vehicle emissions from 113 gCO2/km to 77 gCO2/km by FY 2031-32. The draft includes flexibility mechanisms like super credits for hybrids and EVs, credit trading, and multi-year compliance windows. Critics argue these provisions prioritize regulatory compliance over forcing a genuine shift to electric vehicles. Compared to China's mandatory New Energy Vehicle credit system, India's approach relies more on fuel efficiency improvements than on mandating EV production. The article notes that weak incentives for electrification, combined with policy uncertainty around ethanol blending targets, could slow the transition. Given India imports 85% of its crude oil, stronger regulations would improve energy security and help meet Glasgow climate commitments. For anyone tracking transport decarbonization in emerging economies, this piece lays out the tension between giving manufacturers flexibility and actually cutting emissions. The key question is whether the draft rules will accelerate EV adoption or simply let automakers buy their way out of meaningful change.